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News July 2012

European Law - Monsanto must live, you will die if things collapse

on Wednesday, May 08, 2013

Seeds are a critically important requirement for agriculture. It is already harder than it ought to be to obtain heirloom seeds - seeds that will produce plants from which you can easily save your own seed for next year instead of being forced into the clutches of big business to buy new seed every year. Even before this, European legislation discriminated against heirloom seeds in a short-sighted destructive drive to purge a tremendous reserve of seed diversity and breeding experience from the hands of home gardeners and small businesses.

Now this appears to be going one step further.

What does this have to do with you, you might ask? Well, the answer is simply. The more the European Union (and this is not the only part of the world where big business is driving this sort of legislation) legislates against the ability of smaller organisations and individuals to breed and propagate seed - the less food secure you can be in the event of civilisation collapsing. It is bad enough to depend upon the cold corporate monster that is agri-business at the best of times, but if that edifice should crumble and collapse later - what do you expect to eat, supposing you are able to cultivate the land?

Legislation like this should be resisted a lot more aggressively than it is being. It is potentially life and death in the future to lose the ability to retain your own seed.

Building to the second round of collapse

on Saturday, May 04, 2013

With the benefits of hindsight the unusual jet stream behaviour that caused the Russian drought and fires in 2010 (and widespread Pakistan flooding) with the consequent export ban on wheat may have been the first large scale effect that could be suspected of being related to Arctic amplification and the changes occurring in the jet stream driving increasingly extreme weather in the mid latitudes. At that time this pressured global food prices rapidly and a set of nations that in many cases would have imported this wheat experienced significant social unrest - revolutions and civil war. In some of these cases (for example Syria, which we will use as an example of trends of interest) the nations are also directly stressed by the effects of climate change. A previous round of milder unrest correlated fairly well with the nations that underwent regime change.

Food prices are currently at levels that historically represent the cusp at which conflict starts to be triggered. Nations that experienced substantial social instability in the last episode of social instability are even now still contributing to increasing stress levels in adjacent regions. This will tend to increase the size of the next round of collapse.

It has taken a long time, given that we have been trying to raise the profile of this message for rather a long time now (as one can see from how out of date the information on this website is now) but media outlets are finally starting to run articles that join up the dots we presented on this site nearly a year ago. I would like to think this site helped some people find this information for the first time - but our traffic is still rather small and was negligible a year ago.

Agriculture is critically threatened and food supplies stand to substantially diminish over a timescale of only years. We live in a world where in developed nations people typically rely upon market forces to feed themselves and where widespread social instability can be expected if this system starts to breakdown. The global economy is in trouble and many nations have vulnerabilities other than agriculture - for example dependence on international trade for resources, products and services. The logistics of maintaining these dependencies will start to unravel as more nations fall into social instability.

Already this year a new threat to US crop production is threatening (though we emphasise it is still too early to make statements as to yield):

If the jet stream stuck in place and delivered the sort of summer the UK had last year to America, this would affect yield just as seriously as the drought last year. The anticipation of this alone could send food prices rising upwards uncomfortably. That is before one considers extreme weather over the rest of the planet, where statistically we would need to be lucky to gain respite year on year.

The situation is very serious indeed and we believe time is running out to prepare for the failure of modern civilisation. It seems likely that another round of substantial social instability can be expected within 12 months from now and possibly sooner.

Perhaps some people will have heard that here first another year from now - but let's hope this is all that happens, and that there are no black swans in the meantime. The situation is increasingly unstable and unpredictable.